The Air Quality and Health Impacts of Projected Long-Haul Trucks and Rail Freight Transportation in the United States in 2050
/Abstract
Diesel emissions from freight are a key threat to public health. By considering fleet turnover, climate policy, and technology evolvement, this study linked the projected freight emissions in 2050 to air quality and public health over the continental United States. Using a WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ-BenMAP framework, we quantified the impacts of diesel fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions change on air quality, health, and economic benefits. With a projected business-as-usual socioeconomic growth and fleet turnover, simulated PM2.5 concentrations have widespread reductions, between 1-1.5 μg m-3. Health impact results indicate reduced emissions would prevent premature deaths of 10.3 (95% CI: 6.9 – 13.6) thousand, leading to economic benefits of $107 (95% CI: $10 – $291) billion. The carbon pricing climate policy can obtain ~6% more health benefits nationally, however, it also affects the health outcomes regionally due to transition of demand from truck to rail. Further technology improvements to eliminate high-emitting conditions in the truck fleet provide substantial additional benefits. These results prove that a combination of continuous adoption of stringent emission standards and strong improvements in technology and fuels are required to meet the sustainable freight and community health goals. States with high population density, such as California and Texas, should take more immediate actions to improve air quality and health benefits.